Looking back to September of last year we are still down over 2000 points. Looking back to March the second of this year, we are up just shy of 2000 points.

So the market took six months to drop almost 50% and two months to claw back around 27%.

The big question is does one invest in the market now, hoping the momentum upwards will continue, or will the markets lose some of those gains as it stops to catch its breath….

The answer, as always with the markets, is never clear cut. Too many variables are at play that have never been tested before, or at least not since the Great Depression.

One way of determining the issue is going with your gut on the following points….

Will the unemployment levels continue to climb as such a veracious pace or are there signs that whilst each month may produce higher levels of unemployment, the pace of these increases are levelling off and once steadied will start to experience positive job growth.

Are there enough first time home buyers with good enough credit to get home loans from the banks as the credit market defrosts?

Are the geopolitical issues surrounding Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Israel containable or will their be a flash point of elevated conflict at any time in the near future?

Will businesses be returned their lines of credit so that they can meet payroll and not have to lay off any more staff in order to survive??

Will GM manage to stay afloat. Will the Fiat takeover of Chrysler go smoothly?

What about CitiBank. Are they & other financial institutions through the worst or is the worst yet to come. The government will be releasing its stress test findings today.

According to the Associated Press, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the economy should start growing again later this year, his most optimistic assessment of the country’s financial health since the recession struck with force last year.

And then of course there is that wild card – the swine flu, which in a worst case scenario will wreck the markets beyond recognition. But those odds are slim to none. But what about a better case scenario – but still one that will fare badly for the markets; if the country shuts down like Mexico did…

All these variables make it a coin toss as to whether the markets can continue making further gains. If you have money that you can afford to lose, I personally am ogf the opinion that there is much more upside to this recovery than downside, but how many of us still have gamble money left??

That in itself is the strongest indicator yet where we are with our economic recovery.

Good luck to the brave is what I say!!